Thursday, June 29, 2006

A SOCIO-ECONOMIST, YET HERE IS WHY I HATE NUMBERS

Two! Two! Two beautiful numbers!

I love the summer. I mean, I absolutely love the summer. I live in one of Canada's most relaxing summer cities (Halifax, Nova Scotia), and there is nothing like sitting back in one of the 6,498 bars in the downtown core and watching a ball game.

And while my heart has always belonged to the Seattle Mariners, a the little-team-that-could, the Minnesota Twins, have created a little niche in my Grinch-esqe heart. Playing in the hardest division in the majors, the red-hot Twins have gone on a tear recently, going 17-2 since June 7.

Despite this amazing feat, the Twinkies are still 11 games out of first place! 11 games! In fact, in this recent winning span, they have only made up a half-game (!!!) on the first-place Tigers!

In fact, Sports Illustrated's Jacob Luft has picked up on this, and provides some very interesting stats. He points out that if the White Sox play .500 ball for the rest of the season, the Twinkies would have to post a record of 52-33 to catch them! Even worse, they would have to win two additional games (a 54-31 record) to catch the Tigers!

What does this mean for the chances of a Twins post-season birth? Well, they have 23 games remaining against the White Sox and the Tigers (roughly 28% of their remaining schedule). In addition, they the rest of their schedule sees them play 37 games (roughly 44%) against sub .500 teams. They play the Royals 13 more times this season!

When you compare the Twins schedule to that of their divison rivals, it bodes pretty well for the Twinkies. The Tigers play 59 games, or roughly 70% of their remaining games against above .500 teams, while the White Sox play 53 games, or 63% against the majors better teams.

If Santana and Mauer stay as hot as they have been since June, I know where a bettin' man would place his money.

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