NFL WEEK TWO PICKS

This week, and for the rest of the season, Neate Sager, from over at Out of Left Field, joins in the tomfoollery that is NFL prognostication.

DISCLAIMER: These picks are for recreational use only. I am not Brandon Lang nor Chris Schultz. I am a sports fan who loves football and making an occasional bit of money.

Point spreads are courtesy of Covers.com and are as of 12:30 EST Sept 14.

Sunday, September 17 – 1:00pm
Buffalo (plus 6.5) at Miami (over/under 37)
Buffalo is coming off a close loss to the New England Patriots, while Miami fell in week one to the defending Superbowl champs, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Neither of these teams looked particularly great in the second-half of their games. And Miami’s loss could be attributed to coach Nick Saban’s fourth-quarter gaffe. The Dolphins will win this one, but an improved Bills team will keep it close.
Pearce’s Pick: Miami 24-21. (Bills cover)
Sager's Pick: Miami 23-20. (Bills cover)


Carolina (minus 1) at Minnesota (o/u 37)
Carolina is coming off a game where the offense stumbled against the Falcons tough defense, while their defense was ineffective at stopping the run. More importantly, there defense suffered the loss of two starters: middle-linebacker Dan Morgan is out with a concussion and left-tackle Travelle Wharton is done for the year with a torn ACL and MCL. With Steve Smith still sidelined, the team that was a preseason favorite to win the Superbowl is still looking for their first win. They will still be looking for it after their tilt with the Vikings, who came away with a narrow victory over the reeling Washington Redskins. The Vikes ran for only 86 yards last week, but against the depleted Panthers defense, they should easily surpass that.
Pearce’s Pick: Minnesota 21-17.
Sager's Pick: Carolina 24-17.

Cleveland (plus 10) at Cincinnati (o/u 42)
Neither Cleveland or Cincinnati had stellar passing games last week, with the teams combining for only 221 yards. The Browns defense gave up 170 passing yards and 156 rushing yards. With Carson Palmer looking for comfortable, and Rudi Johnson in the backfield, the Bengals have a good opportunity to go to 2-0 on the season.
Pearce’s Pick: Cincinnati 30-17.
Sager's Pick: Cincinnati 28-20. (Browns cover)

Detroit (plus 9.5) at Chicago (o/u 32)
Detroit gave up 264 total yards to one of the most potent offenses in the league last week, losing a boring 9-6 game to the Seahawks. This week, they are going up against the Bears, who are not usually noted for their offensive skills. Can Jon Kitna duplicate last weeks 213 yards passing? How will the addition of Az-Zahir Hakim affect the Lions offense? It doesn’t matter as the Bears defense, while not as dominant in years past, will smother the Lions lackluster running game.
Pearce’s Pick: Chicago 17-10. (Lions cover)
Sager's Pick: Chicago 19-9.

Houston (plus 13.5) at Indianapolis (o/u 47)
The Texans are in trouble this week. After holding their own in the first-half against the Eagles, they could not put together a scoring drive in the second. They finished 3-11 in third-down situations, and you are not going to win a lot of football games if you don’t convert these chances. Indy’s run game wasn’t that great, and as I have said before, they are going to miss Edgerrin James more than they think. That said, they did gain 272 yards passing and it is likely to be the same thing this week. Bet on Indy and the spread.
Pearce’s Pick: Indianapolis 42-17.
Sager's Pick: Indianapolis 31-17.

New Orleans (minus 2) at Green Bay (o/u 38)
New Orleans is favored by two points, meaning odds-makers think Green Bay actually has a chance in this one. Unfortunately, the Packers defense had but one sack last week, and I expect Reggie Bush to have his first “big” game this week against the hapless Packers defense, who gave up 361 yards last week.
Pearce’s Pick: New Orleans 24-7.
Sager's Pick: Green Bay 24-20.

N.Y. Giants (plus 3) at Philadelphia (o/u 42)
This is going to be the game of the week. The McNabb and Co. looked like the Eagles of old last week and Dante Stallworth is making his presence known. On the other side, the Giants, while 0-1, lost to Superbowl favorites Indy, but they kept it relatively close. This game will be fun to watch and I expect a high score on both sides of the ball.
Pearce’s Pick: Philadelphia 35-33. (Giants cover)
Sager's Pick: Philadelphia 23-13.

Oakland (plus 12) at Baltimore (o/u 34)
Baltimore is coming of a 27-0 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Bucs. The defense was outstanding, giving up only 142 yards of total offense. Combine this with Oakland’s offense, which finished last in week one, and their poor run defense, and it is another big win for Jamal Lewis and the Ravens.
Pearce’s Pick: Baltimore 24-10.
Sager's Pick: Baltimore 26-3.

Tampa Bay (plus 5.5) at Atlanta (o/u 36)
Is this the year of Michael Vick? Or is it the year of Warrick Dunn? Vick threw two touchdowns last week, Dunn ran for 132 yards, and the defense played superb against a Panthers offense without it’s star-impact player. The Bucs are coming off an embarrassing loss to Baltimore and without an true-impact player of the calibre of a Steve Smith, the Bucs are in for another loss. Although, the tight defense of both these teams will keep the game close and the scores relatively low.
Pearce’s Pick: Atlanta 20-10.
Sager's Pick: Atlanta 17-14. (Bucs cover)

Sunday, September 17 – 4:05pm
Arizona (plus 7) at Seattle (o/u 47)
Seattle is coming off a 9-6 win against the Detroit Lions, in which neither team found the end-zone. Don’t expect the same thing this week. The Cardinals looked like a different team last week, but it may have had something to do with their opponent. Warner will not put up similar numbers to last week and the defense will not be able to contain Alexander and the Seahawk’s offense. Oh ya, do I even need to mention the addition of Deion Branch? Look for Seattle to win easily against the spread.
Pearce’s Pick: Seattle 27-14.
Sager's Pick: Seattle 28-24. (Cardinals cover)

St. Louis (minus 3) at San Francisco (o/u 43)
St. Louis did not score one touchdown last week, yet took advantage of 5 Bronco turnovers to win 18-10. The 49ers are coming off a loss, and we should all get used to saying that phrase this season. Look for Steven Jackson to have another solid week, and the St. Louis Rams to put up another win.
Pearce’s Pick: St. Louis 17-10.
Sager's Pick: St. Louis 27-10.

Sunday, September 17 – 4:15pm
Kansas City (plus 10.5) at Denver (o/u 40)
Another game that has the making’s of a good one. The Broncos are coming off a loss in week one where they did not give up one TD, yet they still lost the game. KC did not play that great at home to the Bengals, but more disconcerting is that QB Trent Green is sidelined with a concussion. Is Damon Huard the guy that’s going to lead KC to the playoffs? Not so much. But Denver won’t be the spread.
Pearce’s Pick: Denver 27 -17. (Chiefs cover)
Sager's Pick: Denvers 27-7.

New England (minus 6) at N.Y. Jets (o/u 37)
Despite coming off a win over the Titans where starting QB Chad Pennington threw for 319 yards, the New York Jets are still 6 point underdogs to division rival New England. The Pats are coming off a three-point victory over Buffalo that was closer than many had anticipated. The question in this game is whether the Jets will be able to stop the run. They allowed 86 yards last week against the Titans, but this week, they will be up against the pounding Corey Dillion, Kevin Faulk, and the surprising Laurence Maroney. I believe they will.
Pearce’s Pick: New York 17-14.
Sager's Pick: New England 26-14.

Tennessee (plus 11.5) at San Diego (o/u 38)
The Chargers crushed the Raiders last week, and up against a similarly offensively-challenged team, expect much of the same.
Pearce’s Pick: San Diego 34-14.
Sager's Pick: San Diego 31-17.

Sunday, September 17 – 8:15pm
Washington (plus 6) at Dallas (o/u 37)
Both teams are 0-1 coming into week 2 after losing games they were both supposed to win. Both teams had similar defenses last week, while Dallas had a more potent offense. With an impact player like Terrell Owens able to break off for a TD at any moment, it is hard to pick against them. With Shawn Springs injured, it looks like it will be up to Carlos Rogers to cover T.O. I think this favors Owens.
Pearce’s Pick: Dallas 24-21. (Redskins cover)
Sager's Pick: Dallas 20-16. (Redskins cover)

Monday, September 18 – 8:30pm
Pittsburgh (minus 1.5) at Jacksonville (o/u 36.5)
Both teams are coming off big wins in week one, and the Steelers are given a very soft spread. Does this mean the game will be close? Last week, the Steelers gained 342 yards of total offense while the Jags gained 307. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers allowed 278 total yards and the Jags allowed 323. So the edge is to the Steelers, but their victory last week was partially due to Nick Saban’s lapse in throwing ability (a flag that is). Will Leftwich be able to have another solid outing like last week? I think no.
Pearce’s Pick: Pittsburgh 23-19.
Sager's Pick: Pittsburg 28-17.

NFL WEEK ONE PICKS

DISCLAIMER: These picks are for recreational use only. I am not Brandon Lang nor Chris Schultz. I am a sports fan who loves football and making an occasional bit of money.

The betting lines are courtesy of Covers.com and are as of 6:30 EST.

Thursday, September 7
Miami at Pittsburgh (minus 3)
PICK: Miami 20-17. The Dolphins continue the streak they started last year against the Rothelisberger-less Steelers.
WINNER: Pittsburgh 28-17. Pittsburgh rewards Steeltown with an opening day win, and the rest of the betting country by covering the spread.

Sunday, September 11
Atlanta at Carolina (minus 5)
PICK: Panthers 24-21. Even without Smith in the line-up, the depth of the Panthers will prevail. But not against the spread.
WINNER: Atlanta 20-6.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay (minus 3)
PICK: Baltimore 24-17.
WINNER: Baltimore 27-0.

Buffalo (plus 9.5) at New England
PICK: New England 35-10. The long year for Buffalo begins on Week One.
WINNER: New England 19-17.

Cincinnati at Kansas City (minus 2)
PICK: Cincinnati 28-24. Carson Palmer shows the pre-season wasn't a fluke, and the Bengals are for real.
WINNER: Cincinnati 23-10.

Denver at St. Louis (plus 3.5)
PICK: Denver 21-17. Denver starts the season off on the right foot.
WINNER: St. Louis 18-10.

New Orleans at Cleveland (minus 3)
PICK: New Orleans 24-17. Bush runs for around 80 yards on 20-25 carries.
WINNER: New Orleans 19-14.

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (minus 2.5)
PICK: N.Y Jets 17-14. One of the few bright spots for the Jets this year.
WINNER: N.Y. Jets 23-16.

Philadelphia at Houston (plus 5.5)
PICK: Philadelphia 28-21. Honestly, who is gonna consider watching this game?
WINNER: Philadelphia 24-10.

Seattle at Detroit (plus 6)
PICK: Seattle 32-24. Superbowl runner-up Seattle starts up with a win in Motown.
WINNER: Seattle 9-6.

Chicago at Green Bay (plus 3.5)
PICK: Chicago 42-10. Favre throws but one touchdown this game. Perhaps his only one all season.
WINNER: Chicago 26-0.

Dallas at Jacksonville (minus 2)
PICK: Dallas 21-7. If Dallas is to go deep in the playoffs like many pundits predict, they should win this one easily, and cover the spread.
WINNER: Jacksonville 24-17.

San Francisco at Arizona (minus 9)
PICK: Arizona 16-6. Can the Cards cover the spread? Against the 49ers, it's a no-brainer.
WINNER: Arizona 34-27.

Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants (plus 3)
PICK: Indianapolis 34-21. Won't even be close.
WINNER: Indianapolis 26-21.

Monday, September 12
Minnesota at Washington (minus 4.5)
PICK: Washington 21-17. Brunell and co. show that the preseason may have been a fluke.
WINNER: Minnesota 19-16.

San Diego at Oakland (plus 3)
PICK: San Diego 28-21.
WINNER: San Diego 27-0.

NFL 2006 PREDICTIONS

With the NFL season set to begin in but a few days, here's my picks for how the season will play out, starting with the AFC.


AFC EAST
The Patriots look to avenge last year's early playoff loss, but after going 2-2 this pre-season, a few questions about this group remain: Will the offense, led by perennial Pro-Bowler Tom Brady, be as effective with the loss of David Givens and, as it appears, Deion Branch? Will Junior Seau pick up the slack with Teddy Bruschi nursing a broken wrist? How will the defense deal with the loss of Willie McGinest?

1. New England Patriots
Despite these questions, the Patriot's have proved that under Bill Belichick, the sum of the team is better than it's parts. Tom Brady has the ability to lead receivers into big yardage, and to place the ball perfectly. Despite losing his top two receivers, Brady and Co. seem unfazed.

2. Miami Dolphins
After running for 907 yards on 207 carries, second year running-back Ronnie Brown will have some help carrying the load this year. Daunte Culpepper was brought in to help shoulder some of the burden, but after going 2-2 in the pre-season -- but with their second stringers taking it to St. Louis -- it remains to be seen if the Dolphins can capture the magic that saw them finish the season with six-straight wins.

3. New York Jets
The Jets are obviously in re-building mode and making some solid draft choices like D'Brichashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. However, the two rookies, both first on the Jets depth chart for their respective positions, will have their work cut out for them protecting Chad Pennington and creating holes for Kevan Barlow.

4. Buffalo Bills
J.P Losman won the starting QB job for the Bills, but it is likely that 4th year running back, Willis McGahee will be given loads of work on offensive series'. But with the Bills, you have to consider their defensive line, anchored by RE Aaron Schoebel, as one of their strengths. Nonetheless, they are still the Bills, and with five of their first six games coming against tough opponents, they may not recoup from a poor start.


AFC NORTH
The top two picks in this division are a no-brainer, but the question is who will finish on top. And of course, the division is going to be dominated by questions about the two top quarterbacks: Is Carson Palmer going to rebound from his knee surgery? and Is Ben Roethlisberger going to be able to rebound from his motorcycle accident?

1. Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer seems to have had all the proper pieces put back into the right place -- although, it took him awhile to get over that mental hurdle. Of course, there is likely more mental hurdles he will still have to get over. But with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson as Palmer's primary targets, and Rudi Johnson in the backfield, it is hard to bet against this offense.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have the cornerstones of that Super Bowl team still intact; however, there success last year came largely from a season-ending 8 game winning streak, and it will be difficult to duplicate that this year. But I think as the year goes on, questions surrounding Bill Cowher's future may start to impact the team, specifically, their starting QB.

3. Baltimore Ravens
It is obvious that Baltimore is not the dominating team they once were, with an aging Ray Lewis anchoring the defense up the middle. This is not to say that they may not slide into a playoff spot via the wild-card. Kyle Boller is out, and Steve McNair is in, so look for Derrick Mason to have an even better year than his 1,000 yard one last year.

4. Cleveland Browns
Year two will not be any better for Romeo Crennel. Sorry, not much else to say.


AFC SOUTH
This division is all about the Colts. Despite last year's regular season dominance, the Colts still found a way to spend February in front of the t.v. instead of on it. With this still fresh in their minds, will this finally be the year of Manning and Co.?

1. Indianapolis Colts
At least two writer's are predicting Peyton Manning and the Colts to finally break-through in the playoffs and actually win the big dance. I agree that the Colts are due, but I am skeptical that it will occur this year. However, the defense proved last year that it is not all about the offense, so maybe it could happen.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags 12 wins last season had a little help from a generous schedule. However, with a much tougher one this year, a similar record might be stretching it. A relatively solid defense needs to be better supported by a more consistent offense -- Byron Leftwich, this means you!

3. Houston Texans
"Surprise" first-pick Mario Williams will have a lot to do to win over the Texans fans, who wanted Reggie Bush in the back field to compliment David Carr. Obviously this didn't happen, and the defense will be much improved. However, for a team that didn't boast a player with 1,000 yards carrying or receiving, some offense may have been more beneficial.

4. Tennessee Titans
Who is going to QB this team is a moot point -- with no discernable offensive target, the QB may as well be throwing to pylons (which means I still have a shot). Indeed, the acquisition of David Givens gives the O some credibility, but after game one, it will become clear that this team has some giant leaps to take.


AFC WEST
This division boasts three teams that have a legitmate shot at the division, if the cards fall properly for each team. The team that will prevail is the one that can stay healthy, and barring that, the one with more depth.

1. Denver Broncos
And that team appears to be the Broncos. The Bronco's already had a legitmate threat in the backfield in the Bells and Jake Plummer. The acquisition of Javon Walker and the emergence of Jay Cutler gives Mike Shanahan even more options.

2. San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers hasn't had the strongest pre-season, but he is certainly a step-up from a former Chargers starting QB (cough cough). Having A.J Feeley backing him up will more than likely help his development like breathing helps me lose weight. Guys like McCardell, and some guy by the name of LaDanian Tomlinson will be carrying the load, and doing a relatively good job of it.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
Larry Johnson is an amazing player, but unfortunately, he is not an amazing team. Thus, he can't do this on his own, although judging by the personnel Cardinal's brass has surrounded him with, they think this possible. I am sure he looks in the mirror everyday and wonders: "why me?" Much like all Chiefs fans.

4. Oakland Raiders
Warren Sapp is playing the D-Line with Burgess (16 sacks last season), so this should make some opposing QB's think about getting the ball of more quickly. However, it is not like the rest of the secondary is going to do much about that: the starters combined for two interceptions last season, and they were both by FS Stewart Schweigert.


NFC EAST
What will be more entertaining: TD's from two explosive players playing on the same team? Or Parcell's slow burn and eventual blow-up? Not that it will happen this year, but mark your calendar for, say, next year around November.

1. Dallas Cowboys
Two words: Glenn and Owens. The former is a catching-machine, and I don't care what anyone says about T.O., the guy can play the game of football. Combine this with a Drew Bledsoe who is playing like he did in the mid-90's, and I think we have a division winner. A few things to keep an eye on is Bledsoe's ability to keep up this pace, and of course, Owens antics. Although, he is still in his honeymoon phase with Dallas, so look out for problems next year.

2. NY Giants
Eli Manning has the skills, but he isn't his older brother. With that said, he has a strong supporting cast: Tiki Barber in the back field, and Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer as targets. As solid defense means the Giant's have a chance to sneak into the playoffs after last year's division championship.

3. Washington Redskins
A terrible pre-season has lead many to wonder if the Redskins are for real. On paper, this team is for solid, with Brunell at the helm, and perennial stars as his targets: Santana Moss, Brandon Llyod, and the newly-acquired Antwaan Randle El. Yet the first-team offense has been dismal in the pre-season, and with Clinton Portis's status unclear, this could make for a long season for the Skins.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
With the Terrell Owens era behind them, the Eagles look to rebound this season. And in the depth chart, the Eagles have some names that are legit. McNabb, Westbrook, Runyan, Kearse, and Dawkins. Yet, their December schedule leaves a bit to be desired: they play at Indy November 26; at home to the Panthers December 4; back on the road for three more at Washington, New York (Giants), and Dallas. Any momentum they have at this point will surely be tested.


NFC NORTH
No one doubts that the Bears will take the division. However, the attention here is going to be on the Vikings, and what kind of bounty they bring home this time, and of course, the swan-song of No. 4.

1. Chicago Bears
With guys like Brian Urlacher, Nathan Vasher, and Charles Tillman patrolling the defensive-side of the ball, it's still going to be a challenge for any team to score points. That said, shut-outs are a rarity in the NFL, so the Bears offense is going to have to step-it up to take the division. But make no mistake, in this division, they will have no problems.

2. Minnesota Vikings
Irony: both Vikings of old and new travelled around in boats, taking whatever bounty (booty?) they could find. And like the Vikings of old, travelling to a new world and having to take the bumps and bruises of a new beginning, so too will the Vikings of 2006. Their first three games are against playoff teams from last year, and this could prove to be a formidable hump to get over. Nonetheless, the last four weeks see them playing some of the weaker teams in the league, which could propel them into a wild-card berth.

3. Detroit Lions
Mike Martz has had much success as a coach in previous year's; however, his unique offensive playbook quickly became obsolete as opposing coach's soon caught on to his system. Of course, it helped having players like Tory Holt, Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, and Kurt Warner running those plays. Unfortunately in Detroit, the same name power and talent is lacking.

4. Green Bay Packers
But if Detroit is lacking in offense, the Green Bay Packers are lacking in everything. And it kills me to say this. Brett Favre's likely swan-song won't be a pretty one. Not much else to say. A few highlights few and far between much of what the team did last year: few touchdowns and numerous interceptions. The loss of Javon Walker doesn't help. I hope they make brown bags large enough to fit over the cheeseheads.


NFC SOUTH
Another tough division where attention will focus on the powerhouse Panthers, underachieving Falcon's, and some Bush.

1. Carolina Panthers
This division has the potential to be one of the toughest, and on paper, the Panther's have fewer reasons for concern than the other teams. With more teams going with a platoon in the back, the depth chart for the Panthers is going to be a benefit. So is a healthy Jake Dellhomme. Throw in Steve Smith, an MVP candidate already, and the offense is set. On defense, the Panther's have an offensive line, anchored by Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, that combined for 34 sacks last season.

2. Atlanta Falcons
On both sides of the ball, the Falcons, on paper, should be, at the very least, 1-2 games behing the Panthers, if not even with them. However, after a dismal finish last season, the Falcon's faithful are beginning to lose patience. And rightfully so. With names like Vick, Dunn, Lelie, Malloy, and Hall on the roster, this team should be on top of the division.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs didn't do much this off-season, and they will probably pay for it in the regular season. They have a strong set of core players, but they still need an impact player or two to make, well, an impact.

4. New Orleans Saints
I find it hard not to cheer for the Saints. I like an underdog. And I like to see good people do well. Reggie Bush, who should be playing for the Texans right now, has the burden of restoring interest into a football team that has undergone some serious setbacks in recent years. This kid is going to be great. And the offense has the potential to put up some big numbers. Unfortunately, with their defense, of which not one starter had more than 100 tackles last season, opposing teams are going to be able to put up even bigger numbers.


NFC WEST
The 2005 NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks will have no problem the League's weakest division, but what about those other teams?

1. Seattle Seahawks
This is a no-brainer. In this division, the Packers would have a shot. Well, that may be stretching it, but barring a complete collapse of first team offense, the Seahawks can set their sites on the playoffs after week one. Or now too. The core from last year is still in tact, and after their loss to the Steelers in January, they want it even more.

2. St. Louis Rams
Six new defensive starters and a winner in Jim Haslett means the St. Louis Rams, often an "offense-only" team may have a more balanced team. Marc Bulger is first on the depth chart and while not flashy, completed about 68% of his passes last year. Combine that with Stephen Jackson, who will get the ball more this year, and Adam Timmerman making holes for
him, and the Rams may make some noise in a weak division.

3. Arizona Cardinals
Matt Leinart throws with his left arm - who cares if he slightly seperated his right one? Not that it matters this year. Give this team a couple of years (which has been the motto since the dawn of this franchise), and they will be the new Bengals. Opening the season against the '49ers all but guarantee's them a good start to the season.

4. San Francisco 49ers
I must dislike this team on principle - they were my older brother's childhood team, and much like the hated Toronto Maple Leafs, no matter how good they were, I thought they would preform poorly. Lucky for me, this will actual happen for the '49ers (and fingers crossed for the Leafs as well, although it appears they do not need my help). Much like the Browns, there is not much to say about this team, although I heard Calvin Johnson would make a great first choice.