With the NFL season set to begin in but a few days, here's my picks for how the season will play out, starting with the AFC.
AFC EAST
The Patriots look to avenge last year's early playoff loss, but after going 2-2 this pre-season, a few questions about this group remain: Will the offense, led by perennial Pro-Bowler Tom Brady, be as effective with the loss of David Givens and, as it appears, Deion Branch? Will Junior Seau pick up the slack with Teddy Bruschi nursing a broken wrist? How will the defense deal with the loss of Willie McGinest?
1. New England PatriotsDespite these questions, the Patriot's have proved that under Bill Belichick, the sum of the team is better than it's parts. Tom Brady has the ability to lead receivers into big yardage, and to place the ball perfectly. Despite losing his top two receivers, Brady and Co. seem unfazed.
2. Miami DolphinsAfter running for 907 yards on 207 carries, second year running-back Ronnie Brown will have some help carrying the load this year. Daunte Culpepper was brought in to help shoulder some of the burden, but after going 2-2 in the pre-season -- but with their second stringers taking it to St. Louis -- it remains to be seen if the Dolphins can capture the magic that saw them finish the season with six-straight wins.
3. New York JetsThe Jets are obviously in re-building mode and making some solid draft choices like D'Brichashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. However, the two rookies, both first on the Jets depth chart for their respective positions, will have their work cut out for them protecting Chad Pennington and creating holes for Kevan Barlow.
4. Buffalo BillsJ.P Losman won the starting QB job for the Bills, but it is likely that 4th year running back, Willis McGahee will be given loads of work on offensive series'. But with the Bills, you have to consider their defensive line, anchored by RE Aaron Schoebel, as one of their strengths. Nonetheless, they are still the Bills, and with five of their first six games coming against tough opponents, they may not recoup from a poor start.
AFC NORTH
The top two picks in this division are a no-brainer, but the question is who will finish on top. And of course, the division is going to be dominated by questions about the two top quarterbacks: Is Carson Palmer going to rebound from his knee surgery? and Is Ben Roethlisberger going to be able to rebound from his motorcycle accident?
1. Cincinnati BengalsCarson Palmer seems to have had all the proper pieces put back into the right place -- although, it took him awhile to get over that mental hurdle. Of course, there is likely more mental hurdles he will still have to get over. But with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson as Palmer's primary targets, and Rudi Johnson in the backfield, it is hard to bet against this offense.
2. Pittsburgh SteelersThe Steelers have the cornerstones of that Super Bowl team still intact; however, there success last year came largely from a season-ending 8 game winning streak, and it will be difficult to duplicate that this year. But I think as the year goes on, questions surrounding Bill Cowher's future may start to impact the team, specifically, their starting QB.
3. Baltimore RavensIt is obvious that Baltimore is not the dominating team they once were, with an aging Ray Lewis anchoring the defense up the middle. This is not to say that they may not slide into a playoff spot via the wild-card. Kyle Boller is out, and Steve McNair is in, so look for Derrick Mason to have an even better year than his 1,000 yard one last year.
4. Cleveland BrownsYear two will not be any better for Romeo Crennel. Sorry, not much else to say.
AFC SOUTHThis division is all about the Colts. Despite last year's regular season dominance, the Colts still found a way to spend February in front of the t.v. instead of on it. With this still fresh in their minds, will this finally be the year of Manning and Co.?
1. Indianapolis ColtsAt least two writer's are predicting Peyton Manning and the Colts to finally break-through in the playoffs and actually win the big dance. I agree that the Colts are due, but I am skeptical that it will occur this year. However, the defense proved last year that it is not all about the offense, so maybe it could happen.
2. Jacksonville JaguarsThe Jags 12 wins last season had a little help from a generous schedule. However, with a much tougher one this year, a similar record might be stretching it. A relatively solid defense needs to be better supported by a more consistent offense -- Byron Leftwich, this means you!
3. Houston Texans"Surprise" first-pick Mario Williams will have a lot to do to win over the Texans fans, who wanted Reggie Bush in the back field to compliment David Carr. Obviously this didn't happen, and the defense will be much improved. However, for a team that didn't boast a player with 1,000 yards carrying or receiving, some offense may have been more beneficial.
4. Tennessee TitansWho is going to QB this team is a moot point -- with no discernable offensive target, the QB may as well be throwing to pylons (which means I still have a shot). Indeed, the acquisition of David Givens gives the O some credibility, but after game one, it will become clear that this team has some giant leaps to take.
AFC WESTThis division boasts three teams that have a legitmate shot at the division, if the cards fall properly for each team. The team that will prevail is the one that can stay healthy, and barring that, the one with more depth.
1. Denver BroncosAnd that team appears to be the Broncos. The Bronco's already had a legitmate threat in the backfield in the Bells and Jake Plummer. The acquisition of Javon Walker and the emergence of Jay Cutler gives Mike Shanahan even more options.
2. San Diego ChargersPhilip Rivers hasn't had the strongest pre-season, but he is certainly a step-up from a former Chargers starting QB (cough cough). Having A.J Feeley backing him up will more than likely help his development like breathing helps me lose weight. Guys like McCardell, and some guy by the name of LaDanian Tomlinson will be carrying the load, and doing a relatively good job of it.
3. Kansas City ChiefsLarry Johnson is an amazing player, but unfortunately, he is not an amazing team. Thus, he can't do this on his own, although judging by the personnel Cardinal's brass has surrounded him with, they think this possible. I am sure he looks in the mirror everyday and wonders: "why me?" Much like all Chiefs fans.
4. Oakland RaidersWarren Sapp is playing the D-Line with Burgess (16 sacks last season), so this should make some opposing QB's think about getting the ball of more quickly. However, it is not like the rest of the secondary is going to do much about that: the starters combined for two interceptions last season, and they were both by FS Stewart Schweigert.
NFC EAST
What will be more entertaining: TD's from two explosive players playing on the same team? Or Parcell's slow burn and eventual blow-up? Not that it will happen this year, but mark your calendar for, say, next year around November.
1. Dallas CowboysTwo words: Glenn and Owens. The former is a catching-machine, and I don't care what anyone says about T.O., the guy can play the game of football. Combine this with a Drew Bledsoe who is playing like he did in the mid-90's, and I think we have a division winner. A few things to keep an eye on is Bledsoe's ability to keep up this pace, and of course, Owens antics. Although, he is still in his honeymoon phase with Dallas, so look out for problems next year.
2. NY GiantsEli Manning has the skills, but he isn't his older brother. With that said, he has a strong supporting cast: Tiki Barber in the back field, and Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer as targets. As solid defense means the Giant's have a chance to sneak into the playoffs after last year's division championship.
3. Washington RedskinsA terrible pre-season has lead many to wonder if the Redskins are for real. On paper, this team is for solid, with Brunell at the helm, and perennial stars as his targets: Santana Moss, Brandon Llyod, and the newly-acquired Antwaan Randle El. Yet the first-team offense has been dismal in the pre-season, and with Clinton Portis's status unclear, this could make for a long season for the Skins.
4. Philadelphia EaglesWith the Terrell Owens era behind them, the Eagles look to rebound this season. And in the depth chart, the Eagles have some names that are legit. McNabb, Westbrook, Runyan, Kearse, and Dawkins. Yet, their December schedule leaves a bit to be desired: they play at Indy November 26; at home to the Panthers December 4; back on the road for three more at Washington, New York (Giants), and Dallas. Any momentum they have at this point will surely be tested.
NFC NORTHNo one doubts that the Bears will take the division. However, the attention here is going to be on the Vikings, and what kind of bounty they bring home this time, and of course, the swan-song of No. 4.
1. Chicago BearsWith guys like Brian Urlacher, Nathan Vasher, and Charles Tillman patrolling the defensive-side of the ball, it's still going to be a challenge for any team to score points. That said, shut-outs are a rarity in the NFL, so the Bears offense is going to have to step-it up to take the division. But make no mistake, in this division, they will have no problems.
2. Minnesota VikingsIrony: both Vikings of old and new travelled around in boats, taking whatever bounty (booty?) they could find. And like the Vikings of old, travelling to a new world and having to take the bumps and bruises of a new beginning, so too will the Vikings of 2006. Their first three games are against playoff teams from last year, and this could prove to be a formidable hump to get over. Nonetheless, the last four weeks see them playing some of the weaker teams in the league, which could propel them into a wild-card berth.
3. Detroit LionsMike Martz has had much success as a coach in previous year's; however, his unique offensive playbook quickly became obsolete as opposing coach's soon caught on to his system. Of course, it helped having players like Tory Holt, Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, and Kurt Warner running those plays. Unfortunately in Detroit, the same name power and talent is lacking.
4. Green Bay PackersBut if Detroit is lacking in offense, the Green Bay Packers are lacking in everything. And it kills me to say this. Brett Favre's likely swan-song won't be a pretty one. Not much else to say. A few highlights few and far between much of what the team did last year: few touchdowns and numerous interceptions. The loss of Javon Walker doesn't help. I hope they make brown bags large enough to fit over the cheeseheads.
NFC SOUTHAnother tough division where attention will focus on the powerhouse Panthers, underachieving Falcon's, and some Bush.
1. Carolina PanthersThis division has the potential to be one of the toughest, and on paper, the Panther's have fewer reasons for concern than the other teams. With more teams going with a platoon in the back, the depth chart for the Panthers is going to be a benefit. So is a healthy Jake Dellhomme. Throw in Steve Smith, an MVP candidate already, and the offense is set. On defense, the Panther's have an offensive line, anchored by Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, that combined for 34 sacks last season.
2. Atlanta FalconsOn both sides of the ball, the Falcons, on paper, should be, at the very least, 1-2 games behing the Panthers, if not even with them. However, after a dismal finish last season, the Falcon's faithful are beginning to lose patience. And rightfully so. With names like Vick, Dunn, Lelie, Malloy, and Hall on the roster, this team should be on top of the division.
3. Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe Bucs didn't do much this off-season, and they will probably pay for it in the regular season. They have a strong set of core players, but they still need an impact player or two to make, well, an impact.
4. New Orleans SaintsI find it hard not to cheer for the Saints. I like an underdog. And I like to see good people do well. Reggie Bush, who should be playing for the Texans right now, has the burden of restoring interest into a football team that has undergone some serious setbacks in recent years. This kid is going to be great. And the offense has the potential to put up some big numbers. Unfortunately, with their defense, of which not one starter had more than 100 tackles last season, opposing teams are going to be able to put up even bigger numbers.
NFC WESTThe 2005 NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks will have no problem the League's weakest division, but what about those other teams?
1. Seattle SeahawksThis is a no-brainer. In this division, the Packers would have a shot. Well, that may be stretching it, but barring a complete collapse of first team offense, the Seahawks can set their sites on the playoffs after week one. Or now too. The core from last year is still in tact, and after their loss to the Steelers in January, they want it even more.
2. St. Louis RamsSix new defensive starters and a winner in Jim Haslett means the St. Louis Rams, often an "offense-only" team may have a more balanced team. Marc Bulger is first on the depth chart and while not flashy, completed about 68% of his passes last year. Combine that with Stephen Jackson, who will get the ball more this year, and Adam Timmerman making holes for
him, and the Rams may make some noise in a weak division.
3. Arizona CardinalsMatt Leinart throws with his left arm - who cares if he slightly seperated his right one? Not that it matters this year. Give this team a couple of years (which has been the motto since the dawn of this franchise), and they will be the new Bengals. Opening the season against the '49ers all but guarantee's them a good start to the season.
4. San Francisco 49ersI must dislike this team on principle - they were my older brother's childhood team, and much like the hated Toronto Maple Leafs, no matter how good they were, I thought they would preform poorly. Lucky for me, this will actual happen for the '49ers (and fingers crossed for the Leafs as well, although it appears they do not need my help). Much like the Browns, there is not much to say about this team, although I heard Calvin Johnson would make a great first choice.
